Dr. Pradeep Mahapatra
While mass media struggled throughout 2022 to release itself out of disruptions confronted due to Covid-19 pandemic, it is presumed that the year 2023 will be devoted to accommodate in the changed social environment of ‘new normal’ evolving and implementing new strategies. The long lockdowns during the pandemic affected the media and entertainment sector like any other industry and business. However, three separate reasons contributed to the owes to make the situation complicated.
First, unprecedented innovations in the field of technological advancement brought far reaching changes in production and distribution in various fields of mass media and the traditional business models could not accommodate to such developments. The crisis continued for three decades in the markets of developed nations and one to two decades old among the developing nations. The biggest huddle for the shift to digital media was marked by absence of successful revenue generation models. As a result, the urgency demanded by digital-first media policy could not be met.
The prevailing environment compelled consumers shift to digital platforms. Assessment of preferences and adoption pattern of individual consumers employing artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques for management of digital platforms started a new era in the consumer economics. Ordinary people started avoiding newspapers and television channels in presence of round-the-clock service provided by social media. Discarding opinion of the professional commentators on current issues, started relying on analysis by self or friends circle. An era of feudal attitude ended in media and entertainment industry.
Second, all forms of mass media : print, television and digital were developed with the advertisement-dependent business model. The model was evolved accidentally 200 years ago during Penny Press era in the United States for management of media economics solely depending upon advertisement revenue, discarding classic cost-for-value model for products sold in the market place.
Rise of popularity in the digital platforms in the developed nations resulted in shift of advertisement spending from print and television into digital. But the problem that caused concern relates to advertisement spending did not reached digital mass media, but about 80 to 85 percent immersed in social media ‘Face Book’, search engine ‘Google’ and e-commerce platform ‘Amazon’.
Third, mass media platforms enjoyed supremacy in the spheres of political, cultural and social organizations for a long time and disregarded the essence of communication to be truthful, objective and non-partial. Media products available in different platforms were built with their own perspectives which is against natural justice and media ethics. Neglect to creativity resulted in negative effects in the long run. The standard of media products met with casualty due to inflow of power-brokers, money-minded and sycophant into media landscape. Major change in consumer behavior towards media products resulted during the pandemic. Many expected that the effects of pandemic will be temporary and pre-pandemic order will return within no time in post-pandemic period. But annual statistics for 2022 proved all such predictions wrong.
Psychologist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross identified five steps of reaction to grief. It is considered as the elementary definition of grief science. She explained that reaction to grief pass through rejection, anger, bargaining, depression and acknowledgement. First, in a grief situation people tend to disbelieve and reject the development. Second, realizing the reality became angry. Third, they question the reason behind such catastrophe. Fourth, the grief stricken sink into depression and fifth, accept the reality and try to cope-up with the changed situation.
In a broad view, mass media passed through the first and second steps during 2020-21, while third and fourth steps were crossed during 2022. The last phase will be confronted during 2023. The logic clearly indicates that media and entertainment industry will adopt new models during ‘new normal’ of 2023. In the process few of the platforms will sink into oblivion, a few will opt for consolidation and others evolve five, ten or twenty-year-long projects employing their resources to overcome the huddles. Thus, 2023 will act as a year of change.
In the contemporary media ecosystem print medium confronted high casualties due to disruption. On one hand, advertisement revenue continue to fall among the newspapers and periodicals while on the other hand, subscription figures registered fast decrease. A researcher quoted newspaper circulation trend in Britain analyzing data gathered by ‘Price Water-house Cooper’ between 2017 and 2022. The total loss of circulation during past five years has accounted 45 percent and the trend may continue for next five years between 2023 and 2027 to reach 65 percent.
In many geographies it is difficult to collect dependable circulation figures of newspapers and the other print products. In such situations, it is taken for granted that the newspaper market figures of Britain may reflect in other markets with little variation. Data collected through newspaper hawkers in a tire–II city in Odisha showed that the highest circulated language daily decreased circulation from 10,000 copes to 6,500 copies, the second highest circulation reduced from 9,000 to 6,000 copies and the third largest circulation from 8,000 copies sinked to 4,500 copies. In a rough estimate newspaper market in Odisha may have reduced to 45 percent during the past five years. If one will expect a further fall of circulation of newspaper to 65 percent during next five years, the situation definitely demands urgent intervention.
In the process of change in print media industry which includes newspapers, periodicals and books needs renewed editorial policy formulation which will drive the journey. Readership will increase only when the publications start presenting content those are more relevant, useful, personally important and interesting to the readers. It will require adoption of not only new editorial models, but also presentation and circulation formats. The new content management system has to ensure speed, flexibility, monetization and empowerment of editorial desk to achieve optimum results. It is time to abandon old habits and assumptions. Editorial policy construction will rely more on reader’s than editor’s perspectives. There is no dearth of patronage for niche content. The new readers will seek content tailored to their needs and desires.
Secondly, the monetization angle in editorial, production and circulation management will gain prominence during 2023. Experts predict that overall advertisement spend during 2023 will remain almost in a similar position compared to 2022, but continue to flow into other than mass media channels. It will result in turbulence, instability and uncertainty throughout 2023. It will compel print publications to concentrate upon reader revenue sources, such as subscriptions, membership, donation and events. Readership engagement will emerge as a new work segment.
Thirdly, the print media will be compelled to seek help of the advanced technological tools in problematic fields which include content generation, content evaluation, subscription sales promotion and print order management. For example, machine learning algorithms can calculate exactly how many copies will sell in news-stands which will protect the publisher from printed copy wastage. Similarly subscription drive, popularity measurement of articles, even content generation and make-up may also gather benefit through use of technology. In the past such type of facilities were inaccessible, but now available online everywhere for a small price on a piece-meal-basis. The trend will be a long term initiative, but publishers may start adoption beginning 2023.
All the available publication platforms may not be interested to fight against the disruptions. As a result, a good number of platforms may close business during 2023. The economic slowdown evident in the post-pandemic period is feared to grow further and the situation imposes restrictions on investments in mass media and entertainment industry.
Mass media predictions prepared in a global perspective may change in different geographies according to prevailing conditions. For example, a section of regional press in India confronted advertisement and subscription revenue loss in the post-pandemic period are continued to be compensated by generous government advertisement that poured during the covid-19 surge period for supporting government policies. The trend may benefit mainstream newspapers up till 2024 general elections. But blind support to the establishment resulted in growing readers avoidance to news products. The long-term impact will certainly impact business and moral strength of print publications. Thus, 2023 may prove to be a year of change in mass media objectives to protect its identity.
(English translation of the original Odia newsletter by the author circulated on December 30, 2022. https://tinyletter.com/pradeepmahapatra/letters/message-282 . It is an open-access content, free for translation and reproduction)
Dr. Pradeep Mahapatra is a retired faculty of Journalism, Berhampur University, Odisha.https://about.me/pradeepmahapatra
References:
Kunova, Marcela. Predictions for Journalism in 2023 : Newsroom leadership, product and revenue. journalism.co.uk. December 14, 2022.
Granger, Jacob. Predictions for journalism in 2023 : Audience expectations and user needs. Journalism.co.uk. December 12, 2022
https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/technology-that-performs-at-the-speed-of-news/
Gautoam, Upasana. Technology that performs at the speed of news. niemanlab.org
Granger, Jacob. Predictions for journalism in 2023 : Audience expectations and user needs. Journalism.co.uk. December 12, 2022
https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/technology-that-performs-at-the-speed-of-news/
Gautoam, Upasana. Technology that performs at the speed of news. niemanlab.org
